Future Reservoirs & Irrigation Schemes Some important considerations

Future Reservoirs & Irrigation Schemes Some important considerations

By ‘The Reformers Water Management and Distribution Committee’:
Chairman: Engr. A. N. G. Abbasi Members: Engr. Shaikh Manzoor Ahmed
Engr. Kazi Abdul Majid Engr. Qamaruddin Sahto Syed Qamar uz Zaman Shah
December 2000
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Future Reservoirs & Irrigation Schemes Some important considerations

by

The Reformers Water Management and Distribution Committee:

Chairman: Engr. A. N. G. Abbasi Members: Engr. Shaikh Manzoor Ahmed

Engr. Kazi Abdul Majid Engr. Qamaruddin Sahto Syed Qamar uz Zaman Shah

December 2000

The Reformers

Future Reservoirs and Irrigation Schemes in Pakistan – Some important considerations

1. Introduction

1.1. Pakistan depends almost entirely on the water of Indus System for its

requirements of irrigated agriculture. Under the Indus Water Treaty, 1960, three eastern rivers were allocated to India for their exclusive use and the western rivers, Indus, Jhelum and Chenab were assigned to Pakistan. However India has been allowed to irrigate over 1.3 million acres of land from the western rivers under the Treaty.

1.2. The flow pattern of our rivers is highly erratic. The highest annual flow in the recorded history was 186.79 MAF in the year 1959-60 as against the minimum of 97.74 MAF in the year 1974-75. During Kharif season the maximum flow of 154.74 MAF was recorded in the year 1959-60 as against minimum of 79.47 MAF in the year 1974-75. Out of the total annual flows, about 84% are in Kharif and 16% in Rabi. For storage of surplus floodwater of Kharif, when available, to be used in shortage periods, the following storages have been constructed: –

(i) Mangla (live capacity 5.8 MAF) on river Jhelum.

(ii) Tarbela (live capacity 9.3 MAF) on river Indus.

(iii) Chashma (live capacity 0.5 MAF) on river Indus.

1.3. Two Link Canals i.e. Chashma Jhelum Link and Taunsa Panjnand Link have also been constructed to divert the surplus flow when available in the river Indus, over and above the requirements of the canals settled on that system, and when there is shortage in the tributary rivers at that time.

2. Future Reservoirs in Pakistan

2.1. The need for constructing more storages is being stressed time and again by WAPDA, it is necessary to study and consider the following aspects in this respect: –

(i) Operation and management of the present reservoirs and Indus Link

Canals.

(ii) The surplus water availability in the rivers after meeting the present

commitments.

3. Operation and Management of the present reservoirs and

Indus Link Canals.

3.1. Before launching of any new reservoir project it is important to review the working, management and operations of the present reservoirs and Link Canals. In this context, it is important that the following basic criteria/thumb rules for operation of reservoirs are properly and faithfully observed.

(i) The reservoirs are water banks, where water is stored in Kharif season only when it is surplus to the requirements/allocations of the present Canal Systems, for subsequent use during shortage periods particularly the following Rabi season.

(ii) During Kharif season itself the reservoirs are to be used for balancing so that the fluctuations in the river flows are absorbed and steady flow maintained in the river downstream even during shortage period.

(iii) The Indus Link Canals are to be operated only when the water in Indus is in excess of the allocations/ requirements of the canals settled on that system and there is shortage in the tributary rivers.

3.2. The experience of the past has however shown that these basic criteria are not being observed. A study, carried out by the Water Management and Distribution Committee of The Reformers, regarding the operation of reservoirs and Link Canals for the season Kharif 2000 reveals the following facts: –

(a) Water was stored in the reservoirs specially in Mangla even during the periods when there was extreme shortage of water in the lower riparian provinces of Sindh and Balochistan.

(b) Heavy fluctuations were passed downstream Chashma and Taunsa Barrages, which caused further difficulties for the regulation and distribution of water in Sindh and Balochistan. The fluctuations could have been avoided if the reservoirs were managed, regulated and operated properly.

(c) The Indus Link Canals were opened when there was acute shortage of water in Sindh and Balochistan, though at the same time water was being stored in Mangla reservoir, which proves that there was no shortage in tributary system to justify the transfer of water from Indus. The link canals continued to operate almost throughout the season inspite of severe shortage of water in the lower provinces.

3.3. Before even thinking of a new reservoir, it is very necessary that the operation and management of present reservoirs and link canals is stream lined so that the legitimate interest of the lower riparian provinces is safeguarded. Unless this is done and satisfactory foolproof arrangements are made by Federal Government for the operation and management of the present reservoirs and link canals to the satisfaction of the lower riparian provinces, no new reservoir project can even be considered.

4. Surplus water availability

4.1. As stated above the need for constructing more reservoirs is being stressed to meet the water shortage in the country. It is being argued that Turkey has 44 dams and therefore we should have similar number of dams. However the construction of dams depends upon the quantity of surplus water available, as we can not afford to construct dams at huge cost which remain high and dry.

5. Water availability computations by WAPDA

5.1. Notwithstanding the fact that the water of Indus system has been utilized/committed to a very great extent, no regular systematic periodical studies for water availability and utilization were ever carried out in the past nor any such studies are being carried out /updated at present. However, WAPDA has made the water availability computations on two occasions as under: –

(i) Water availability computations made for the Water Resources

Committee of National Commission for Agriculture (1987).

(ii) Water availability computations by WAPDA (1994).

Both these computations were made much after the construction of Mangla and Tarbela reservoirs. Some water availability computations were also presented by WAPDA representative in Seminars.

5.2. These WAPDA computations have been challenged because of inconsistencies and inaccuracies. Moreover they are not complete and comprehensive, because some important aspects of water availability have not been focused upon. In this paper, it is proposed to highlight these important aspects, on the basis of analysis of the basic data contained in the WAPDA’s latest document of water availability of December 1994. 6. Annual and Kharif inflows of western rivers

6.1. The record of river flows is available from 1922-23. A statement showing the annual and Kharif inflows of western rivers from the years 1922-23 to the year 1993-94 is attached as Annexure I. A statement showing the same information arranged in descending order is attached as Annexure II. A bar chart showing the annual river flows for the same period is attached as Annexure III. A bar chart showing the Kharif inflows of the western rivers for the same period is attached as Annexure IV. The figures given in Annexure I and II indicate that the total annual river flows during the 72 year period were 9987.56 MAF whereas the total Kharif flows were 8344.14 MAF.

7. Annual water availability on year to year basis

7.1. It is necessary to compute the annual surplus water availability on year to year basis, after accounting for the present water requirements / commitments of the existing Canal Systems. The existing requirements / commitments are as under: –

(i) Water Accord allocations below rim stations 114.4 MAF (ii) Average system losses (Post Tarbela 1977-94) 14.7 MAF (iii) India’s authorized uses on western rivers(unutilized portion) 4.8 MAF (iv) Outflows to sea (Water Accord figure) 10.0 MAF

___________ TOTAL 143.9 MAF

7.2. In the above table the figures for (i) are in accordance with the Water Accord 1991. However some small percentage of the allocations have not yet been fully utilized particularly in the recently completed and ongoing projects. But this unutilized part of allocation can not be considered as surplus.

The figure of 14.7 MAF for annual system losses shown under (ii) above is the average for the Post Tarbela period 1977 to 94 as indicated in WAPDA document of December 1994. However the maximum system losses during Post Tarbela period as recorded in WAPDA document occurred in 1990-91 were 24.5 MAF. There are also a few more years during this period when the losses were in excess of 20 MAF. The extent of system losses has been varying from year to year. No attempt has however been made by WAPDA to study the causes for the variations and to co-relate them to the different variables in the river regime. In the absence of any such study and co-relation, it would have been proper to adopt the maximum figure of the system losses, because it is always better to err on the safe side while planning huge projects like storage dams. However in this paper the WAPDA average figure of 14.7 MAF has been adopted.

7.3. As regards the figure of 4.8 MAF shown under (iii) above, it represents the unutilized portion of India’s authorized uses on western rivers. Under the Indus Water Treaty, India is entitled to develop 1,343,477 acres of cropped area on western rivers. There is no restriction on the quantity of water, which they can utilize, nor there is any time period prescribed for developing the area. Out of the above area, India has developed 785799 acres and utilized 6.75 MAF of water. Therefore for developing the remaining area of 557,678 acres, India will require additional 4.8 MAF on pro-rata basis. Though there is no restriction on India about the quantum of water, the figure of 4.8 MAF calculated on pro- rata basis has been adopted in this report.

7.4. The figure of 10 MAF for outflow to sea is in accordance with the Water Accord. According to the Accord, further studies were required to be carried out to determine if this quantity is adequate or not but these studies have not even

been started. However independent international agencies like IUCN have estimated the requirements for outflow to sea to be 27 MAF.

7.5. According to the river flow records (Annexure I and II) the quantity of 143.9 MAF of water to meet the commitments of existing canals and outflows to sea as per Accord is available for 26 out of 72 years. The percentage probability is only 36%.

8. Pattern of annual surplus water availability

8.1. Statement showing the annual surplus water availability in western rivers during the 26 years out of a total of 72 years (1922-23 to 1993-94) is enclosed as Annexure V. These details arranged in descending order are given in Annexure VI.

8.2. A study of the analysis in Annexure V and VI reveals that during the 26 years period after meeting the annual requirements of 143.9 MAF, the total quantity of surplus water available in the rivers was 330.16 MAF. This quantity of surplus water available in only 3.3% of the total inflow of western rivers during 72 years (1922-23 to 1993-94) which was 9987.56 MAF. Thus the concept that huge quantity of surplus water is available in our rivers is totally incorrect.

A further study of the analysis given in Annexure V and VI shows that:

(i) Over 50% of the surplus water has been available in 6 years of very high

floods.

(ii) A dam of 6.0 MAF capacity requires a surplus availability of 10.0 MAF (6.0 MAF for storage + 4.0 MAF for additional system losses). The quantity over and above 10.0 MAF is available for a period of 14 years out of 72 years i.e. only 19.4% of the time.

(iii) During the very high flood years, the annual surplus water availability is much in excess of the capacity of storage dam of usual size (which is about 6.0 MAF.)

(iv) The highest surplus availability was 42.89 MAF during the year 1959- 60. The surplus flow of over 20.0 MAF was available for 7 years. These high flows can only be stored in a carry-over dam of a large capacity.

9. Kharif water availability

9.1. The analysis made in the foregoing paragraphs is based on the total annual inflows of the western rivers. However it is more important to analyze the availability of water in Kharif season, because floods occur in this season and

surplus water can be available only in this season. Let us first see the existing water requirements/commitments during Kharif season.

(i) Water Accord Kharif allocations (below rim stations) 77.3 MAF (ii) System losses average Post Tarbela (WAPDA figures) 15.5 MAF (iii) India’s authorized used on western rivers 3.6 MAF

(75% of annual 4.8 MAF) (iv) Outflow to sea (Accord figure) 10.0 MAF (v) Total without present storages 106.4 MAF (vi) Requirement of present storages 15.0 MAF Total with existing storages 121.4 MAF

9.2 The figures in Annexure I and II indicate that this quantity of 121.4 MAF required to meet the allocation of the existing canals, requirement of existing storages and outflow to sea as per Accord was available for a period of 24 years out of 72 years (1922-23 to 1993-94). This gives a percent probability of 33%.

10. Pattern of surplus Kharif water availability

10.1 Analysis of the pattern of surplus Kharif water availability in western rivers during 24 years is reflected in Annexure VII. The same analysis in descending order is given in Annexure VIII.

10.2 An examination of the analysis indicates that during the 72 year period (1922- 23 to 1993-94), the total surplus quantity was 277.32 MAF as against the total annual inflow in Western Rivers of 9987.56 MAF and total Kharif inflows of 8344.14 MAF in the same period. Thus the surplus Kharif availability works out to 2.77% of total annual inflows and 3.32% of total Kharif inflows. This clearly shows that it is not correct that huge quantity of surplus water is available for storage.

10.3 Further study of the analysis of Annexure VII and VIII reveals that: –

(i) Over 50% of surplus Kharif water has been available in 6 years of very

high floods out of 72 years.

(ii) A dam of 6.0 MAF capacity requires a surplus availability of 10.0 MAF (6.0 MAF for storage plus 4.0 MAF for additional system losses). The quantity of over and above 10.0 MAF is available for a period of 12 years out of 72 years i.e. only 16.66% of the time.

(iii) During the very high flood years the annual surplus water availability is much in excess of the capacity of storage dam of usual size, which is about 6.0 MAF.

(iv) The highest Kharif surplus availability was 33.30 MAF in 1959-60. The surplus flow of over 15.00 MAF and above was available during the period of 8 years, which could only be stored in a carry over dam of large capacity.

11. Some other aspects of water availability

11.1. A further study of the periodical frequency of the surplus water availability is

given in Annexure IX and X. A study of this analysis reveals the following:-

(i) The numbers of years of annual surplus water availability in each decade varies between 2 and 5. However the maximum surplus water availability of 105.99 MAF was in the decade 1951-60 and minimum of 4.1 MAF only during the decade 1961-70.

(ii) The number of years of Kharif surplus water availability in decade varies between 1 and 5. However the maximum Kharif surplus availability was 78.41 MAF during the decade 1951-60 as against minimum of 3.57 MAF during the decade 1961-1970.

(iii) The continuous period of low flow years with no-surplus annual water availability has been 9 years from 1924-25 to 1932-34. The continuous low flow period of Kharif was from 1961-62 to 1972-73 i.e. 12 years. The total extent of low flow periods of four years and more during 72 years period (1922-23 to 1993-94) has been 37 years on annual basis and 38 years during Kharif season. This reveals that over 50% of the time, there have occurred continuous low flow cycles of 4 years and more.

In planning any future reservoirs, these facts about the vagaries of the rivers have to kept in view.

12. A glaring example of poor planning

12.1 Hub Dam was built by WAPDA for providing water supply for irrigation to areas in Balochistan and drinking water to city of Karachi. The dam is completely dry since over three years. It is because the planners did not consider and examine the water availability scenario in the right perspective. Surely, the engineers and their consultants will not blame themselves and have the moral courage to accept the responsibility. Instead, they will blame nature for what has happened.

12.2 Similar situation, or even much worse, will surely occur if we build more

reservoirs on Indus system without regards to the realities.

13. Future Irrigation Schemes

13.1 Since the past few years there has been a drive to launch programs for construction of reservoirs and new irrigation projects to utilize surplus water. Initially the “Integrated Valley Development Program” with huge estimated cost of Rs. 250 billion was prepared by Mr. Farooq Ahmed Laghari when he was Federal Minister for Water and Power. Subsequently, a program titled “National Water Resources Development Program” with fabulous investment of Rs. 562 billion was prepared by the former Mian Nawaz Sharif Government, which had more or less similar contents. The present government also seems to be inclined to launch this programme.

13.2 The prospects for future reservoirs have been examined in the foregoing paragraphs. Now let us examine the case for new irrigation projects, but before doing so we must consider the position of the present irrigation projects in operation.

13.3 The list of irrigation projects in operation is given in WAPDA’s publications titled “Indus Basin Irrigation System – Abstract of Operational Data”. A copy of this list is enclosed as Annexure XI. This list also indicates the water allowance of each project according to the original sanctioned design. Though there are some mistakes in the figures given by WAPDA in this list, still it is fairly indicative about the general picture of water allowance of each project. Most of the present projects date back to the nineteenth or early part of twentieth century. These projects have very low water allowance, presumably because there was no pressure on land at the time when these projects were constructed. In practice, these projects have been drawing more water than their design, over the past many years.

14. Water Accord Allocations

14.1 Under the Water Accord, 1991, the allocations of water have been made as

under: –

(i) A quantity of 114.35 MAF has been allocated to the provinces under

para 2 of the Accord.

(ii) The Ratio for sharing balance river supplies (including future shortages)

amongst provinces has been fixed under para 4 of the Accord.

14.2 For the utilization of this quantity of water (114.35 MAF) allocated to the provinces under para 2 of the Accord, ten daily statements were prepared under para 14 (a) (b) of the accord on the guideline of average system uses for the period 1977-82 adjusted pro-rata to correspond to the seasonal allocations of the Canal Systems. These 10-daily statements have since been approved for existing Canal System by Council of Common Interests (CCI) and been made a

part and parcel of the Accord. Thus the quantity of 114.35 allocated under para 2 of the Accord already stands allocated and distributed amongst the existing canals according to 10-daily statements approved by CCI. An extract of relevant paras of Water Accord is enclosed as Annexure XII.

15. Water availability for existing canals

15.1 As explained in the foregoing paras, the analysis of the water flow data for 72 years indicates that the water in the rivers is available for meeting the existing allocations/commitments for only 24 years i.e. 33% of the time. This clearly indicates that we have already far exceeded the limits of water availability and therefore we have to often resort to sharing of shortages under paras 14 (a) (b) of the Water Accord.

15.2 As such, there is no scope for any new projects to be undertaken from the allocations under para 2 of the Accord. Inspite of this, a few new projects have been sanctioned which is clear violation of the Accord. In view of very dismal position of water availability, it will be disasterous if any more new projects are undertaken at this stage because every such project will mean damaging the established agriculture on existing projects by further reducing their supplies even below the present level. Moreover every new project means huge capital expenditure not only on the construction of the projects but also for colonisation, developing the lands, building towns and infrastructure like roads, electricity lines, hospitals, school etc.

15.3. Under the circumstances, the correct option is to undertake rehabilitation and improvement of existing Canal Systems, particularly older ones, which have very low and unrealistic water allowances. However the remodelling plan has to be accommodated within the Water Accord allocation of each province.

16. Balance river supplies

16.1. Para 4 of the Water Accord determines the provincial shares in the balance river supplies (including future storages). The availability of surplus water has been analyzed in Annexures V and VI and discussed in foregoing paragraphs. The total surplus availability is only about 300 MAF over a period of 72 years, out of total inflow of about 10000 MAF during the period, i.e. only 3% of the total inflow. This availability is limited to a few years of very high floods. No new irrigation project can be conceived under such a poor water availability scenario. This surplus water can be utilized only in a carry over storage dam, which will have to be designed in consideration of the factual position.

17. Conclusion and recommendations

1. Before any project for new storages is considered, the management, regulation and operation of the existing reservoirs and Indus Link Canals should be thoroughly reviewed, to the satisfaction of lower riparian provinces. The Federal Government should ensure that no water is stored in reservoirs during shortage periods in the rivers and that Indus Link Canals are not operated during shortage periods in Indus.

2. It is an illusion that there is lot of surplus water in the rivers available for storage. Actually there is no enough water available for 48 years out of 72 years recorded history, even for present commitments of Canal System and existing storages. Moreover there have been continuous low flow periods as long as 12 years duration. Also there have been several cycles of low flow years of 4 years and more, which have occurred over a period of 38 years i.e. more than 50% of the time.

3. The quantity of 10 MAF tentatively allocated under the Water Accord for outflow to sea is available only for 24 years out of 72 years i.e. 33% of the time. It seems highly improbable that any additional quantity can become available for the purpose. It is therefore important to ensure that at least the present position is maintained, so that the already precarious environmental situation does not deteriorate further.

4. The only way to somehow show surplus water availability for future storage and irrigation schemes is to assume that the water allocated to existing projects is also available for future storages and irrigation schemes. But you cannot eat the cake and have it too. If another reservoir, other than a carry over dam is built under these circumstances, then it will be argued that since the reservoir has been constructed, it has to be filled even if no surplus water is available. This will mean disaster for established agriculture on existing Canal Systems.

5. The total quantity of surplus water after meeting present commitments over a period of 72 years is only about 300 MAF out of total river inflows of about 10000 MAF, or just 3% of the total flows, such a high percentage of water commitment, leaving a balance of only 3%, is most unrealistic on a river system having highly variable flows. Most of this small surplus quantity is available in a few very high flood years. These facts will have to be considered while planning any new reservoirs. The only possibility is a carry over dam, which can hold enough water, which is available in very high flood years, to be used in subsequent drought years.

6. If all the available surplus water of 72 years were to be stored in a big carry over dam, an average of about 4 MAF of water per year would become available (assuming no losses). However there are bound to be evaporation and absorption losses due to long period of storage, as well

as additional system losses in conveyance, which will reduce the annual average availability to 2.5 to 3 MAF.

7. The total available surplus flow of about 300 MAF over a period of 72 years is all that can be available in the kitty. We may store it in reservoirs, use it for new irrigation schemes, or let it flow into the sea to meet the environmental needs. However, this very small quantity of available surplus water cannot be thinly spread, as it will cause difficulties of management and operation.

8. The quantity of 114.35 MAF allocated under para 2 of Water Accord is meant for existing irrigation schemes and stands distributed to each Canal System according to the 10 daily statements approved by the Council of Common Interests, which have also been made a part and parcel of the Accord. Also there is no possibility of any new irrigation scheme out of the surplus balance flow available because its quantity is very small and probability/frequency very unreliable. Any new scheme undertaken hereafter will therefore be highly detrimental to the established agriculture on existing schemes. Moreover the new schemes will require huge expenditure on infrastructure development in addition to their capital cost.

9. It is necessary to review the water allowances of the existing Canal Systems and to undertake a remodelling programme within the limits of seasonal provincial Accord allocations. The water allocated under the Accord can best be utilized within the existing Canal System, especially those whose present water allowance is very low.

10. The programs for water conservation, economic water use, improved

agricultural practices, water saving devices and water course lining particularly in saline ground water areas need to be accelerated.

ANNEXURE I – ANNUAL AND KHARIF INFLOWS OF WESTERN RIVERS

(FIGURES IN MAF )

Year Annual Flow Year Kharif Flow

1 1899 147.44 1 1899 121.48 2 1899 154.01 2 1899 130.46 3 1899 129.69 3 1899 109.56 4 1899 118.73 4 1899 100.51 5 1899 117.31 5 1899 99.16 6 1899 110.83 6 1899 90.42 7 1899 130.31 7 1899 108.22 8 1899 124.14 8 1899 97.20 9 1899 136.86 9 1899 117.13 10 1899 123.40 10 1899 101.10 11 1899 125.26 11 1899 107.62 12 1899 144.45 12 1899 125.66 13 1899 126.86 13 1899 108.19 14 1899 139.09 14 1899 116.81 15 1899 145.82 15 1899 124.91 16 1899 131.44 16 1899 110.10 17 1899 147.95 17 1899 125.36 18 1899 144.78 18 1899 127.24 19 1899 120.10 19 1899 104.52 20 1899 133.67 20 1899 107.75 21 1899 167.08 21 1899 143.57 22 1899 147.00 22 1899 127.39 23 1899 136.16 23 1899 116.06 24 1899 150.50 24 1899 131.64 25 1899 128.88 25 1899 110.44 26 1899 124.67 26 1899 101.36 27 1899 155.72 27 1899 132.15 28 1899 156.00 28 1899 132.29 29 1899 171.66 29 1899 151.28 30 1899 113.81 30 1899 93.60 31 1899 130.30 31 1899 112.33 32 1899 143.08 32 1899 116.31 33 1899 140.25 33 1899 119.98 34 1899 132.53 34 1899 107.51 35 1899 157.38 35 1899 131.92 36 1899 151.10 36 1899 123.00 37 1899 158.56 37 1899 124.47 38 1899 186.79 38 1899 154.74 39 1899 145.71 39 1899 124.97 40 1899 140.51 40 1899 119.58

41 1899 109.81 41 1899 89.96 42 1899 135.06 42 1899 113.40 43 1899 138.43 43 1899 116.11 44 1899 138.98 44 1899 117.89 45 1899 140.47 45 1899 116.64 46 1899 146.19 46 1899 120.43 47 1899 138.84 47 1899 115.63 48 1899 134.26 48 1899 114.49 49 1899 106.17 49 1899 90.27 50 1899 104.14 50 1899 88.40 51 1899 128.07 51 1899 101.62 52 1899 164.09 52 1899 144.97 53 1899 97.74 53 1899 79.47 54 1899 139.52 54 1899 116.30 55 1899 135.28 55 1899 116.85 56 1899 127.46 56 1899 104.36 57 1899 163.48 57 1899 137.45 58 1899 131.98 58 1899 108.84 59 1899 136.39 59 1899 109.81 60 1899 140.62 60 1899 117.69 61 1899 122.37 61 1899 97.10 62 1899 149.95 62 1899 128.28 63 1899 134.92 63 1899 115.99 64 1899 117.70 64 1899 91.66 65 1899 146.65 65 1899 116.38 66 1899 141.07 66 1899 111.79 67 1899 161.40 67 1899 136.56 68 1899 131.32 68 1899 102.01 69 1899 166.12 69 1899 130.98 70 1899 172.10 70 1899 141.53 71 1899 169.68 71 1899 138.62 72 1899 127.47 72 1899 104.67

TOTAL 9987.56 TOTAL 8344.14

ANNEXURE II – ANNUAL AND KHARIF INFLOWS OF WESTERN RIVERS

(FIGURES IN MAF) (IN DESCENDING ORDER )

Year Annual Flow Year Kharif Flow

1 1899 186.79 1 1899 154.74 2 1899 172.1 2 1899 151.28 3 1899 171.66 3 1899 144.97 4 1899 169.68 4 1899 143.57 5 1899 167.08 5 1899 141.53 6 1899 166.12 6 1899 138.62 7 1899 164.09 7 1899 137.45 8 1899 163.48 8 1899 136.56 9 1899 161.4 9 1899 132.29 10 1899 158.56 10 1899 132.15 11 1899 157.38 11 1899 131.92 12 1899 156 12 1899 131.64 13 1899 155.72 13 1899 130.98 14 1899 154.01 14 1899 130.46 15 1899 151.1 15 1899 128.28 16 1899 150.5 16 1899 127.39 17 1899 149.95 17 1899 127.24 18 1899 147.95 18 1899 125.66 19 1899 147.44 19 1899 125.36 20 1899 147 20 1899 124.97 21 1899 146.65 21 1899 124.91 22 1899 146.19 22 1899 124.47 23 1899 145.82 23 1899 123 24 1899 145.71 24 1899 121.48 25 1899 144.78 25 1899 120.43 26 1899 144.45 26 1899 119.98 27 1899 143.08 27 1899 119.58 28 1899 141.07 28 1899 117.89 29 1899 140.62 29 1899 117.69 30 1899 140.51 30 1899 117.13 31 1899 140.47 31 1899 116.85 32 1899 140.25 32 1899 116.81 33 1899 139.52 33 1899 116.64 34 1899 139.09 34 1899 116.38 35 1899 138.98 35 1899 116.31 36 1899 138.84 36 1899 116.3 37 1899 138.43 37 1899 116.11 38 1899 136.86 38 1899 116.06 39 1899 136.39 39 1899 115.99 40 1899 136.16 40 1899 115.63

41 1899 135.28 41 1899 114.49 42 1899 135.06 42 1899 113.4 43 1899 134.92 43 1899 112.33 44 1899 134.26 44 1899 111.79 45 1899 133.67 45 1899 110.44 46 1899 132.53 46 1899 110.1 47 1899 131.98 47 1899 109.81 48 1899 131.44 48 1899 109.56 49 1899 131.32 49 1899 108.84 50 1899 130.31 50 1899 108.22 51 1899 130.3 51 1899 108.19 52 1899 129.69 52 1899 107.75 53 1899 128.88 53 1899 107.62 54 1899 128.07 54 1899 107.51 55 1899 127.47 55 1899 104.67 56 1899 127.46 56 1899 104.52 57 1899 126.86 57 1899 104.36 58 1899 125.26 58 1899 102.01 59 1899 124.67 59 1899 101.62 60 1899 124.14 60 1899 101.36 61 1899 123.4 61 1899 101.1 62 1899 122.37 62 1899 100.51 63 1899 120.1 63 1899 99.16 64 1899 118.73 64 1899 97.2 65 1899 117.7 65 1899 97.1 66 1899 117.31 66 1899 93.6 67 1899 113.81 67 1899 91.66 68 1899 110.83 68 1899 90.42 69 1899 109.81 69 1899 90.27 70 1899 106.17 70 1899 89.96 71 1899 104.14 71 1899 88.4 72 1899 97.74 72 1899 79.47

Total 9987.56 8344.14

ANNEXURE III

MAF

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60 180 160

140 40

120 20

MAF

200

100

0

80

60

40

20

0

ANNUAL INFLOWS OF WESTERN RIVERS 1922-94

YEARS

ANNEXURE IV

KHARIF INFLOWS OF WESTERN RIVERS 1922-1994

X-Axis

ANNEXURE V – ANNUAL SURPLUS AVAILABILITY OF WATER IN WESTERN RIVERS

Year

Annual Flow (MAF)

Cumulative Surplus (MAF)

% of Surplus over commitment

Total (MAF)

Surplus (INCLUDING PRESENT STORAGE) -143.90 1 1899 147.44 3.54 3.54 1.07 2 1899 154.01 10.11 13.65 4.13 3 1899 144.45 0.55 14.20 4.30 4 1899 145.82 1.92 16.12 4.88 5 1899 147.95 4.05 20.17 6.11 6 1899 144.78 0.88 21.05 6.38 7 1899 167.08 23.18 44.23 13.40 8 1899 147.00 3.10 47.33 14.34 9 1899 150.50 6.60 53.93 16.33 10 1899 155.72 11.82 65.75 19.91 11 1899 156.00 12.10 77.85 23.58 12 1899 171.66 27.76 105.61 31.99 13 1899 157.38 13.48 119.09 36.07 14 1899 151.10 7.20 126.29 38.25 15 1899 158.56 14.66 140.95 42.69 16 1899 186.79 42.89 183.84 55.68 17 1899 145.71 1.81 185.65 56.23 18 1899 146.19 2.29 187.94 56.92 19 1899 164.09 20.14 208.08 63.02 20 1899 163.48 19.58 227.66 68.95 21 1899 149.95 6.05 233.71 70.79 22 1899 146.65 2.75 236.46 71.62 23 1899 161.40 17.50 253.96 76.92 24 1899 166.12 22.22 276.18 83.65

25 1899 172.10 28.20 304.38 92.19 26 1899 169.68 25.78 330.16 100.00 330.16

ANNEXURE VI – ANNUAL SURPLUS AVAILABILITY OF WATER IN WESTERN RIVERS IN DESCENDING ORDER

Year

Surplus over Annual Flow

commitment (MAF)

(MAF)

Cumulative Surplus (MAF)

% of Total Surplus -143.90

1 1899 186.79 42.89 42.89 12.99 2 1899 172.10 28.20 71.09 21.53 3 1899 171.66 27.76 98.85 29.94 4 1899 169.68 25.78 124.63 37.74 5 1899 167.08 23.18 147.81 44.77 6 1899 166.12 22.22 170.03 51.50 7 1899 164.09 20.14 190.17 57.60 8 1899 163.48 19.58 209.75 63.53 9 1899 161.40 17.50 227.25 68.83 10 1899 158.56 14.66 241.91 73.27 11 1899 157.38 13.48 255.39 77.35 12 1899 156.00 12.10 267.49 81.02 13 1899 155.72 11.82 279.31 84.60 14 1899 154.01 10.11 289.42 87.66 15 1899 151.10 7.20 296.62 89.84 16 1899 150.50 6.60 303.22 91.84 17 1899 149.95 6.05 309.27 93.67 18 1899 147.95 4.05 313.32 94.90 19 1899 147.44 3.54 316.86 95.97 20 1899 147.00 3.10 319.96 96.91

21 1899 146.65 2.75 322.71 97.74 22 1899 146.19 2.29 325.00 98.44 23 1899 145.82 1.92 326.92 99.02 24 1899 145.71 1.81 328.73 99.57 25 1899 144.78 0.88 329.61 99.83 26 1899 144.45 0.55 330.16 100.00

Total 330.16

ANNEXURE VII – KHARIF SURPLUS AVAILABILITY OF WATER IN WESTERN RIVERS

Year

Kharif Flow (MAF)

Surplus over commitment (MAF)

Cumulative Surplus(MAF)

% of Total Surplus (INCLUDING PRESENT STORAGE) -121.4

1 1899 121.48 0.08 0.08 0.03 2 1899 130.46 9.06 9.14 3.30 3 1899 125.66 4.26 13.40 4.83 4 1899 124.91 3.51 16.91 6.10 5 1899 125.36 3.96 20.87 7.53 6 1899 127.24 5.84 26.71 9.63 7 1899 143.57 22.17 48.88 17.63 8 1899 127.39 5.99 54.87 19.79 9 1899 131.64 10.24 65.11 23.48 10 1899 132.15 10.75 75.86 27.35 11 1899 132.29 10.89 86.75 31.28 12 1899 151.28 29.88 116.63 42.06 13 1899 131.92 10.52 127.15 45.85 14 1899 123.00 1.60 128.75 46.43 15 1899 124.47 3.07 131.82 47.53 16 1899 154.74 33.34 165.16 59.56 17 1899 124.97 3.57 168.73 60.84 18 1899 144.97 23.57 192.30 69.34 19 1899 137.45 16.05 208.35 75.13 20 1899 128.28 6.88 215.23 77.61 21 1899 136.56 15.16 230.39 83.08 22 1899 130.98 9.58 239.97 86.53 23 1899 141.53 20.13 260.10 93.79

24 1899 138.62 17.22 277.32 100.00

Total 277.32

ANNEXURE VIII – KHARIF SURPLUS AVAILABILITY OF WATER IN WESTERN RIVERS IN DESCENDING ORDER

Year

Kharif Flow (MAF)

Surplus over commitment (MAF)

Cumulative Surplus(MAF)

% of Total Surplus -121.40

1 1899 154.74 33.34 33.34 12.02 2 1899 151.28 29.88 63.22 22.80 3 1899 144.97 23.57 86.79 31.30 4 1899 143.57 22.17 108.96 39.29 5 1899 141.53 20.13 129.09 46.55 6 1899 138.62 17.22 146.31 52.76 7 1899 137.45 16.05 162.36 58.55 8 1899 136.56 15.16 177.52 64.01 9 1899 132.29 10.89 188.41 67.94 10 1899 132.15 10.75 199.16 71.82 11 1899 131.92 10.52 209.68 75.61 12 1899 131.64 10.24 219.92 79.30 13 1899 130.98 9.58 229.50 82.76 14 1899 130.46 9.06 238.56 86.02 15 1899 128.28 6.88 245.44 88.50 16 1899 127.39 5.99 251.43 90.66 17 1899 127.24 5.84 257.27 92.77 18 1899 125.66 4.26 261.53 94.31 19 1899 125.36 3.96 265.49 95.73 20 1899 124.97 3.57 269.06 97.02 21 1899 124.91 3.51 272.57 98.29 22 1899 124.47 3.07 275.64 99.39 23 1899 123.00 1.60 277.24 99.97

24 1899 121.48 0.08 277.32 100.00

Total 277.32

ANNEXURE IX – SURPLUS ANNUAL WATER AVAILABILITY DURING VARIOUS DECADES 1922-94

Decade

No. of years of Surplus availability

Total Suplus Availability MAF 1 1892 ( 9 Years ) 2 13.65 2 1891 4 7.40 3 1891 5 56.80 4 1891 5 105.99 5 1891 2 4.10 6 1891 2 39.72 7 1891 3 26.30 8 1897 ( 4 Years ) 3 76.20

Total 26 330.16

SURPLUS KHARIF WATER AVAILABILITY DURING VARIOUS DECADES 1922-94

Decade

No. of years of Surplus availability

Total Suplus Availability MAF 1 1892 ( 9 Years ) 2 9.14 2 1891 4 17.57 3 1891 5 60.04 4 1891 5 78.41 5 1891 1 3.57

6 1891 2 39.62 7 1891 2 22.04 8 1897 ( 4 Years ) 3 46.93

Total 24 277.32

ANNEXURE X – I. CONTINUOUS LOW FLOW YEARS ( 4 YEARS AND MORE ) WITH NO ANNUAL SURPLUS AVAILABILITY ( 143.9 MAF )

DURING THE 72 YEARS PERIOD ( 1922-23 TO 1993-94 )

1 1924-25 to 1899 9 Years 2 1951-52 to 1899 5 Years 3 1961-62 to 1899 6 Years 4 1968-69 to 1899 5 Years 5 1974-75 to 1899 4 Years 6 1979-80 to 1899 4 Years 7 1984-85 to 1899 4 Years

Total 37 Years

II. CONTINUOUS LOW FLOW YEARS ( 4 YEARS AND MORE ) WITH NO KHARIF SURPLUS AVAILABILITY ( 121.4 MAF )

DURING THE 72 YEARS PERIOD ( 1922-23 TO 1993-94 )

1 1924-25 to 1899 9 Years 2 1951-52 to 1899 5 Years 3 1961-62 to 1899 12 Years 4 1974-75 to 1899 4 Years 5 1979-80 to 1899 4 Years 6 1984-85 to 1899 4 Years

Total 38 Years

ANNEXURE XI – CANAL CAPACITIES AND COMMAND AREAS

CCA (million acres)

Water Allowance CUSECS/1000 acres

Cannals

Year Starting Operation

GCA Source of

Capacity

(million Supply Rivers

(CS)

acres) PRNL

Non- PRNL Total PRNL

Non- PRNL

PESHAWAR VALE

Lower Swat 1890 Munda Swat 800 0.196 0.182 – 0.182 6.15 0.0 Kabul River 1890 Below

Warasak

Kabul 450 0.055 0.048 – 0.048 9.85 0.0

Left Bank 1962 Warasak Swat 45 Right Bank 1962 Warasak Swat 455 0.140 0.119 – 0.119 2.55 0.0 Upper Swat 1915 Amandra Swat 1800 0.344 0.279 – 0.279 5.06 0.0 Paharpur 1909 Chashma Indus 500 0.106 0.104 – 0.104 4.62 0.0

Total Peshawar Vale 4050 0.841 0.732 – 0.732 28.23 0.0

UPPER INDUS PLAINS

Central Bari Doab 1859 UCC/BRBD Chenab 2600 0.709 0.649 – 0.649 3.22 – Sidhnai 1887 Sidhnai Ravi 4500 0.965 0.869 0.253 0.869 3.00 4.8 Lower Chenab 1892 Khanki Chenab 11500 3.698 2.886 0.148 3.034 3.17 4.3 Lower Jhelum 1901 Rasul Jhelum 5300 1.616 1.285 0.215 1.500 2.84 4.3 Upper Chenab 1912 Marala/UCC Chenab 4100 1.079 0.611 0.406 1.017 2.73 2.9 Raya 1912 UCC/BRBD Chenab 1725 0.484 – 0.424 0.424 – 2.9 Lower Bari Doab 1913 Balloki Ravi 7000 1.789 1.626 0.044 1.670 3.00 3.3

Upper Jhelum 1915 Mangla Jhelum 1900 0.613 0.377 0.167 0.544 3.03 3.3 Eastern Sadiqia 1926 Suleimanki Sutlej 4900 1.172 0.945 0.024 0.969 3.6/405 –

Pak Pattan 1927 Suleimanki/

Islam

Sutlej 6600 1.320 0.601 0.405 1.006 3.60 5.5

Fordwah 1927 Suleimanki Sutlej 3400 0.581 0.062 0.364 0.426 3.60 5.5

Qaimpur 1927 Islam Ravi –

Chenab

600 0.045 – -0.043 0.043 – 5.5/11

Bahawal 1927 M.B Link Ravi –

Chenab

5400 0.733 0.283 0.322 0.605 2.5/4.0 5.5

Upper Dipalpur 1928 UCC/BRBD Chenab 2283 0.386 – 0.360 0.360 – 5.5

Lower Dipalpur 1928 B.S.I Ravi 3972 0.656 – 0.615 0.615 – 5.5 Mailsi 1928 S.M. Link Chenab/ 4900 1.098 0.320 0.676 0.996 – 5.5

Ravi Panjnad 1929 Panjnad Sutlej 9000 1.532 0.445 0.903 1.348 4.20 5.5 Abbasia 1929 Panjnad Sutlej 1100 0.174 0.074 0.080 0.154 Rangpur 1939 Trimmu Chenab 2700 0.358 – 0.344 0.344 – 4.8 Haveli 1939 Trimmu Chenab 5200 0.201 0.064 0.115 0.179 3.00 4.8 Thal 1947 Kalabagh Indus 10000 2.219 1.641 – 1.641 3.18 –

M.R. Link (Int.) 1956 Marala Chenab 2000 0.175 – 0.158 0.158 – 4.8 D.G. Khan 1958 Taunsa Indus 8800 0.957 – 0.909 0.909 – 6.4 Muzaffargarh 1958 Taunsa Indus 7300 0.928 – 0.809 0.809 – 6.4

Total Upper Indus Plains

118.546 23.300 12.485 7.784 20.269

LOWER INDUS PLAINS

Nortwest 1932 Sukkur Indus 5100 1.263 1.013 0.202 1.215 3.93 12.0 Rice 1932 Sukkur Indus 10200 0.543 – 0.519 0.519 0.00 19.1 Daddu 1932 Sukkur Indus 3200 0.631 0.519 0.065 0.584 4.42 5.2 Khairpur West 1932 Sukkur Indus 1900 0.424 0.417 – 0.417 3.97 0.0 Rohri 1932 Sukkur Indus 11200 2.664 2.561 – 2.561 2.84 0.0 Khairpur East 1932 Sukkur Indus 2700 0.572 0.373 – 0.373 4.98 0.0 Eastern Nara 1932 Sukkur Indus 13400 2.502 1.875 0.301 2.176 2.90 8.3 Pinyari 1955 Kotri Indus 14400 0.804 – 0.758 0.758 0.00 13.1 Fuleli 1955 Kotri Indus 13800 1.005 – 0.923 0.923 0.00 11.4 Lined Channel 1955 Kotri Indus 4100 0.518 0.502 – 0.502 5.04 0.0 Kalri Baghar 1955 Kotri Indus 9000 0.694 0.366 0.226 0.592 4.33 11.2

Pat 1962 Guddu Indus 8300] – 0.747 0.747] Desert 1962 Guddu Indus 12900]

1.170

– 0.328 0.328

0.00 9.8

Begari 1962 Guddu Indus 15500 1.082 – 1.002 1.002 0.00 13.5 Ghotki 1962 Guddu Indus 8500 1.017 – 0.858 0.858 0.00 12.5

Total Lower Indus Plains

134200 14.889 7.626 5.929 13.555

Grand Total 256796 39.03 20.843 13.713 34.556 (By

excluding C.C.A of Qaimpur canal)

Source: Revised Action Programme for Irrigated Agriculture

Main Report. Volume – 1 Table 5-1 (May 1979)

Annexure XII

Extract from Water Accord, 1991

2. In the light of the accepted water distributional principles the following apportionment was agreed

to:

PROVINCE KHARIF RABI TOTAL PUNJAB

SINDH

N.W.F.P. (a)

(b) CIVIL CANALS:

37.07

33.94

3.48 1.80

2.85

18.87

14.82

2.30 1.20

1.02

55.94

48.76

**

5.78 3.00

3.87 BALOCHISTAN

77.34

+ 1.80

37.01

+ 1.20

114.35

+ 3.00

Including already sanctioned Urban and Industrial uses for Metropolitan Karachi.

* *

Ungauged Civil Canals above the Rim Stations.

3. N.W.F.P./Balochistan projects which are under execution have been provided their authirised

quota at water as existing uses. 4. Balance river supplies (including flood supplies and future storages) shall be distributed as below:

Punjab Sindh Baloch: NWFP Total

37 37 12 14 100%

14 (a) The system-wise allocation will be worked out separately, on ten daily basis and will be attached

with this agreement as part and parcel of it.

14 (b) The record of actual average system uses for the period 1977-82, would form the GUIDE LINE for developing a future regulation pattern. These ten daily uses would be adjusted pro-rata to correspond to the indicated seasonal allocations of the different canal systems and would form the BASIS for sharing shortages and surpluses on all Pakistan basis.

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